The one place you really don’t want to be late on a weekend afternoon—heck pretty much any time this month—is the parking lot of the Palisades Center. From now until Christmas, it’s D-Day in Rockland here, at the Nanuet Mall, Khaki’s in New City, Maria Luisa in Nyack, Staples in Nanuet, and Target in Spring Valley, as shoppers do their best to finish their holiday shopping.
Though consumer spending is showing signs of softening, retailers should still be able to post modest gains for the holiday shopping season, which, in places like the Palisades Center and Nanuet Mall, are already in full swing.
The National Retail Federation (
www.nrf.com) has predicted that sales will rise 4.0 percent this year to $474.5 billion. “Retailers are in for a somewhat challenging holiday season as consumers are faced with numerous economic obstacles,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “With the weak housing market and current credit crunch, consumers will be forced to be more prudent with their holiday spending.”
Where They’re Shopping
Though consumers plan to shop at a variety of stores this year, no particular format will see significant traffic gains from last year. Discounters can expect the most traffic as 68.4 percent of consumers plan to shop there (compared to 70.3% in 2006). Department stores will also see a lion’s share of traffic as 58.2 percent will choose this format (vs. 61.6 percent last year). Other popular destinations include grocery stores (44.6% in 2007 vs. 49.3% in 2006) and online (44.3 percent in 2007 vs. 47.1% in 2006).
Retailers who are concerned that holiday sales aren’t living up to expectations needn’t worry: shoppers are off to a slow start. According to the NRF’s 2007 Holiday Consumer Intentions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, most consumers (71.4%) have less than ten percent of their holiday shopping completed. Young adults 18-24 are the least prepared with three-fourths of them (76.2%) finished with less than ten percent of their shopping.
“Good news lies ahead for many retailers whose shoppers have yet to put a dent in their shopping lists,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “Now that the weather has started to cool, consumers will start to think about holiday shopping by making lists, researching gift ideas, and window shopping around town.”
What They’re Buying
There will be plenty of popular items on consumer wish lists this holiday season, but the most sought-after category appears to be the most practical: gift cards. This year, more than half (53.8%) of consumers want to receive a gift card or gift certificate as a holiday gift, though they won’t be the only item on shoppers’ wish lists. Consumers also want everything from clothing and accessories (50.1%) to books, CDs, DVDs, videos and video games (50.8%).
Other popular categories include consumer electronics or computer-related accessories (36.4%), jewelry (23.8%) and home décor or home-related furnishings (22.0%).
According to the survey, debit and check cards will be king again this year with 40.1 percent of shoppers relying on them to make purchases this holiday season, up from 39.1 percent last year. Additionally, about a third of holiday shoppers (32.3%) will primarily use credit cards for holiday purchases. As electronic transactions begin to replace traditional methods of payment, only 5.5 percent of shoppers plan on using their checkbook, and 22.1 percent will use cash.
“Retailers have tried to entice consumers into the stores with early sales and promotions this holiday season, but shoppers are clearly on their own schedule,” said BIGresearch Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist. “Because gift cards are never out of stock, consumers feel that they can wait until the last minute to start shopping. Retailers may continue to wrestle with the best ways to bring people into the stores early this year.”
RBD
The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services.